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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."