Everyday Homicides in the nation Drop 37% Under President Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The typical count of per-day homicides per month in the country has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent government statistics. But, security experts have warned that homicide numbers might not point to enhanced countrywide safety.

Marked Decline in Daily Averages

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November compared with almost 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September. This information was delivered by the head of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded in these past months is very notable,” the President stated, explaining that last month the least number of homicides were registered for any November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Intense cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s highly military campaigns to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent times. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x greater than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an apparently steeper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the President stated: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between government authorities.

Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts urged caution that relying on homicide statistics to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is notably true considering the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be positive news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe last year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer useful for estimating the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the desire to properly recognize and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it might mask periods when there were especially spiking numbers of murders.

“Employing the per-day mean renders spikes of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can cite the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

But notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still beset by extreme violence, with several states in the midst of cartel-driven violence. Recently there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to voice their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to create a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas concluded.