From Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”