🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and capture its head of state – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.