Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.